Event analyst and statistician Brian Friend has taken a look our line up and made some predictions on the outcomes.
A very interesting read, our thanks to Brian! Follow him @coachbrianfriend
***
Filthy 150 Preview
by Brian Friend
The 2020 Sanctional season is ready to kick off with the Filthy 150 from Punchestown Racecourse outside of Dublin Ireland. With the start date so close to the end of this season’s Open, many elite athletes are ready to start the season right. Today we address the athletes most likely to win, most likely to earn a Games invite (remember those can be two different things), and highlight one male and one female athlete you might not know, someone who could surprise you this weekend.
Men:
There are 6 National Champions in the field as the current Open leaderboard sits:
Roman Khrennikov: Russia
Jonne Koski: Finland
Zack George: United Kingdom
Klaus Uggerhoj: Denmark
Linus Bresander: Sweden
Lukas Esslinger: Switzerland
Additionally, 3 athletes in the field are currently in the top 20 worldwide in the Open:
Jean-Simon Roy-Lemaire
Tim Paulson
Cedric Lapointe
And one man sits just outside the top 20, but will likely get in once a few athletes go Team:
Sean Sweeney.
Sweeney’s position of being just outside the top 20, but likely in a position to eventually qualify, is the only possible point of confusion on the men’s side. He will be competing as if he doesn’t have a spot, but men who are chasing him this weekend will know that there’s a good chance that even if they finish directly behind him, there’s the possibility they will eventually earn the invitation.
Of the men listed above, Khrennikov and Koski, appear the most likely to be vying for the top podium spot in Ireland. Khrennkov had three top five finishes last year during Sanctionals, including a win at the Italian Showdown. Koski only competed in one Sanctioned event, the French Throwdown, which he won.
Will Moorad, who did not earn a qualifying spot through the Open this year, will be another man worth watching. He podiumed at all three Sanctioned events he participated in last year, including taking the top spot in Brazil.
Dark Horse for the Men:
The men’s competition for the Filthy 150 is very deep, over half the field finished inside the top 100 in the Open, and that’s not including 4 men who were inside the top 100 during the 2019 Open, but did not participate in the 2020 Open. Picking one man as a potential dark horse is tough. You could go with last year’s Polish national champion Bartek Lipka who seemed to have a lot of potential but did not make it out of the First Cut event at the Games. You could go with one of the Irishmen in the field, Michael Smith, was the Irish National Champion in 2019 and had an impressive 26th place finish in his first trip to Madison this past August, while Sam Stewart is coming off a very impressive Open in which he placed 43rd world wide and narrowly lost the Irish national race to PD Savage. Or you could be excited to see Dan Bailey return to the competition floor after a two and half year hiatus.
But, the man who has not been mentioned, who I expect to do very well is Drew Wayman. At two separate Sanctionals last year (Wodapalooza and Strength in Depth), Drew finished one spot below the man who eventually took the Games invitation. He was slated to compete at the Granite Games but withdrew. He’s been locked into his training and had an excellent Open, finishing 51st worldwide. Don’t be surprised if you see the name Wayman floating towards the top of the leaderboard in Ireland come Sunday.
Women:
There are 5 female National Champions in the field:
Sara Sigmundsdottir: Iceland
Kristin Holte: Norway
Emma McQuaid: Ireland
Emilia Leppanen: Finland
Simona Quintana: Chile
Outside of them, no other athletes competing currently sit in a qualifying position out of the Open, which means they will all be vying for the Games invitation.
Sigmundsdottir, Holte, and McQuaid are all powerhouses who will be competitive throughout the weekend and in contention for a podium spot. Sam Briggs, who suffered an injury mid-Open (and still went on to have the best time worldwide in 20.5) appears to have recovered and will also be fighting for the podium alongside those ladies. The injury prevented her from being the fittest in the United Kingdom, but, assuming she’s healthy, she’s now the clear front runner to take the Games invitation from the Filthy 150.
Dark Horse for the Women:
Of the remaining women in the field, Emelie Lundberg, of Sweden, strikes me as the most likely relative unknown athlete to challenge Briggs for the Games spot. Lundberg is coming off a 40th place worldwide Open finish (which appears like it will fall just short of a qualifying spot, even after a slew of backfills as women go team). She also finished as the second fittest in Sweden, behind Games veteran Camilla Salomonsson Hellman. Lundberg was a member of team Superhero Project last season which took second place at Fittest in Cape Town as well. She competed at Regionals in both 2017 and 2018, finishing as high as 15th. She trains at least once weekly with Bresander (the male national champion from Sweden), and competing with his support, should feel like she is set up well to make a run this weekend.
Top Teams to Watch:
For teams attempting to make it to the Games, the Filthy 150 is the first opportunity of the season. There are 23 teams in the elite division for this competition, and the recipe to get that invitation is simple, win. It’s probable we’ll see 3 teams who eventually separate themselves from the pack as the weekend wears on:
Team Nation (Craig Kenney, Paul Tremblay, Jennifer Smith, Carol-Ann Reason-Thibault)
These four Games veterans bring plenty of power and experience with them to Ireland. Kenney and Smith both competed on teams at the Games last season. Tremblay, though more well known for his individual accomplishments, competed on a team at the Games back in 2012. Reason-Thibault has little team experience, but she’s qualified for the Games as an individual 5 consecutive times and has placed in the top 20 the last 4 years. They combine for an impressive total of 15 Games appearances.
ROMWOD MeatSquad (Dex Hopkins, Christian Harris, Brooke Haas, Kelly Baker)
Hopkins, Harris, and Baker all have previous Games experience on a team. Haas is coming off her first trip to the Games this past August after qualifying through the 2019 Open. Between the four of them, they have a combined 19 Regional and 5 Games appearances.
Team JST Compete (David Shorunke, Benjamin Massey, Megan Lovegrove, Emma Tall)
Another team with Games experience: Massey and Lovegrove were both on the 2017 JST team, Massey was also on the team that took 10th this past August. Tall is coming off her first individual trip to the Games, she qualified last season out of Strength in Depth and had respectable showing of 32nd in Madison. Shorunke nearly qualified as an individual through Strength in Depth last year as well, but lost by a very narrow margin after the final event. He did compete at the Games on CrossFit Nordic in 2016 when they took 6th place.
There’s a lot of anticipation for the first full Sanctional season and it all starts this weekend in Ireland. With talented athletes in every division, it seems the Filthy 150 is more than ready to get the season started in an exciting and competitive way.
***
A guest post by Brian Friend @coachbrianfriend